The fourth step of a typical Oracle | Primavera Risk (Pertmaster) Monte Carlo analysis is to load uncertainty or productivity ranges on the network activities.  Loading three-point estimates (minimum, likely, and maximum) manually can be very time for large projects, however may be very useful for summary schedules or key areas of the project schedule.

Video Walkthrough of Manually Loading Risk Ranges in Oracle | Primavera Risk (Pertmaster) (Duration: 4 min: 49 sec)

Overview and Steps

• The Primavera and Microsoft Project Gantt Chart views have the minimum, most likely, and maximum columns shown.
• The duration uncertainty column can be added to any view.  The columns are Risk Input – Duration Minimum, Risk Input – Duration Most Likely, Risk Input – Duration Maximum.
• The distribution type (Triangle, Beta Pert, etc) can be added to any view by adding the Risk Input – Duration Distribution column.
• The risk analyst can type directly in the columns to manually set the three-point estimates.
• The minimum, most likely, and max can be equal, however the durations cannot be out of logical order.  For example, the minimum cannot be bigger than the most likely or maximum.

Viewing Risk Data in the Navigation Pane

• The risk data can also be manually manipulated via the Risk and Uncertainty tab in the navigation pane.
• The risk analyst or auditor can find any risk information for the project located in the Risk and Uncertainty tab, such as three-point estimates and probability of occurrence.
• A second layer of tabs will appear when the Risk and Uncertainty tab is selected.  Project managers can change the three-point estimates and distributions in the Duration Uncertainty tab located in the second layer.