The fifth step of a typical Oracle | Primavera Risk (Pertmaster) Monte Carlo analysis is to track, quantify, and link risk events to the project schedule for the Monte Carlo analysis.  The first step in creating a qualitative risk register is to setup a scoring system.

Video Walkthrough of the Qualitative Risk Register Scoring System in Oracle | Primavera Risk (Pertmaster) (Duration: 8 min: 32 sec)

Section Overview

Open the register by following the menu path Edit | Risk Scoring.

A risk scoring system is designed to categorize risks by thresholds or tolerance level.  By separating the Thinking behind a scoring system – separate out risks for tracking purposes.

In each the probability scale, impact scale, and tolerance scales listed below, users will be able to:

• Use the drop-down box to set the number of items in scale.
• Click the box that consists of three dots (…) to change the long name or abbreviation for each risk grouping or risk level.

Probability Scale (Top-Left Corner)

• Set the names with the “…” button.
• Set the number of items in the scale.
• Setup the ranges for probability buckets by directly typing the values in the blank spaces.

Set Impact Scales & Types (Top-Right Corner)

• The schedule and cost impacts are the default types.
• The add button allows a user-defined impact type to be added to the impact list.
• The delete button deletes an impact type.  Cost and schedule impact cannot be deleted.
• The cost and schedule fields are numbers.  All user-defined fields are text entry boxes.

 Tolerance Scale (Bottom-Left Corner)

• The goal of the tolerance scale is to setup buckets or stop light values to categorize unacceptable levels of risk.
• Set the names with the “…” button.
• Set the number of items in the scale.
• Set the colors by double-clicking the directly on the color.  A color selector will appear.  Green, yellow, and red is the most commonly used color scale.  Some organizations use orange to separate the high-medium values from the low-medium values.

Probability & Impact Scoring Matrix  (Bottom-Right Corner)

• The project manager can type numbers directly into the squares.  The numbers relate to the tolerance scale that has been setup.
• The numbers have no meaning except to control the tolerance scale.  Any meaning to the numbers relates directly to process and procedures setup by the organization.  Project managers are often irritated that the numbers have no real meaning in the software, however it is outside of the software where the numbers would have meaning.  Based on software mechanics, the numbers just serve to paint the squares the proper color.
• The probability units are setup on the y-axis.
• The impacts buckets are setup on the x-axis.
• If 10 probability buckets were setup, then the y-axis will have 10 spots.
• The risk score will be calculated by finding the where the highest impact meets with the probability.  If the probability is Medium and the highest impact is High, then the score for the risk will be the intersection point on the matrix.
• Scores can be calculated based on an average instead of the highest impact, however this method is not often used because it will artificially lower a score.  For example if the probability is high and the schedule impact is high, then a red risk score might be expected.  If schedule, quality, and performance are all rated very low, then the overall risk score would be reduced (possibly to green) if averages are used.  This would make viewing the risk score very deceptive as it is a high schedule risk.